EU-expansion in South-eastern Europe stalled
09.2009
The outlook on Europe is not only an economic matter for the Balkan States but also one of security and peace.
For almost four years Croatia, the most promising candidate country of the region, has been negotiating with Brussels about its EU-membership. So far the frontier dispute with its neighbour, EU-member state Slovenia, has proved the biggest obstacle on the way to Brussels. At the moment it is hardly foreseeable what this bilateral dispute means for other candidate countries like Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania.
In fact most of the EU-countries exercise indirect pressure by forcing both states to think over their positions most carefully, but Slovenia does not seem impressed by urging EU-partners at all. Anew Ljubljana has said no, this time to provisionally terminating the chapter of freedom of movement for employees, which makes completing negotiations – scheduled by the EU-Commission and Croatia for the end of the year - an illusion. The Slovenian Government justifies its veto by referring to Croatian negotiation dossiers which are said to predetermine the course of the frontier- disputed since 1991 - between the two former Yugoslavian constituent republics in favour of Zagreb (cf. chart). The situation seems even gloomier for the other western Balkan States. Macedonia has been waiting for starting negotiations since 2005. No date has been set yet as it depends on a legal reform and a reform of the police as well as on fighting corruption. Macedonia is also involved in a bilateral dispute with its neighbour Greece. Since becoming independent at the beginning of the 90ies both states have been arguing over the name of the new state. Greece feels that Macedonia might deduct a right to claim the Greek province named likewise and therefore demands a change of the new state’s name. Despite international intermediation it has been impossible to solve the conflict which has now been lasting for almost two decades.
Montenegro and Albania have both filed formal applications for EU-membership, but a lot of time will pass before negotiations will be started. The Swedish Presidency of the European Council expects that both countries can become candidate countries in 2010 at the earliest.
Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo are far away from this. At the moment Belgrade is struggling to unblock the trade agreement with the EU which has been put off for a year now and which was concluded together with the stabilization and association agreement in April 2008. Taking further steps towards the EU also depends on the relations with Kosovo, which unilaterally declared its independence in February 2008. Contrary to the EU Belgrade strictly refuses to take any step that might be mistaken for an indirect recognition of Kosovo. As there are five states in the EU which have so far not accepted the Republic Kosovo it is quite unlikely that negotiations for accession may be started. Institutional and economic problems seem to paralyze Bosnia-Herzegovina on approaching the EU. While Sarajevo keeps pressing for the abolition of the Republika Srpska, Banja Luka threatens to possibly secede from Bosnia. The country which was only laboriously united by international efforts after the war (1992-1995) is far off its straight way into Europe.
All countries of the western Balkan consider joining the EU their strategic and most important goal. It is this outlook which stimulates reforms in the various countries – and this drive threatens to stall if Europe’s interest in the Balkan does not revive.
In fact most of the EU-countries exercise indirect pressure by forcing both states to think over their positions most carefully, but Slovenia does not seem impressed by urging EU-partners at all. Anew Ljubljana has said no, this time to provisionally terminating the chapter of freedom of movement for employees, which makes completing negotiations – scheduled by the EU-Commission and Croatia for the end of the year - an illusion. The Slovenian Government justifies its veto by referring to Croatian negotiation dossiers which are said to predetermine the course of the frontier- disputed since 1991 - between the two former Yugoslavian constituent republics in favour of Zagreb (cf. chart). The situation seems even gloomier for the other western Balkan States. Macedonia has been waiting for starting negotiations since 2005. No date has been set yet as it depends on a legal reform and a reform of the police as well as on fighting corruption. Macedonia is also involved in a bilateral dispute with its neighbour Greece. Since becoming independent at the beginning of the 90ies both states have been arguing over the name of the new state. Greece feels that Macedonia might deduct a right to claim the Greek province named likewise and therefore demands a change of the new state’s name. Despite international intermediation it has been impossible to solve the conflict which has now been lasting for almost two decades.
Montenegro and Albania have both filed formal applications for EU-membership, but a lot of time will pass before negotiations will be started. The Swedish Presidency of the European Council expects that both countries can become candidate countries in 2010 at the earliest.
Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo are far away from this. At the moment Belgrade is struggling to unblock the trade agreement with the EU which has been put off for a year now and which was concluded together with the stabilization and association agreement in April 2008. Taking further steps towards the EU also depends on the relations with Kosovo, which unilaterally declared its independence in February 2008. Contrary to the EU Belgrade strictly refuses to take any step that might be mistaken for an indirect recognition of Kosovo. As there are five states in the EU which have so far not accepted the Republic Kosovo it is quite unlikely that negotiations for accession may be started. Institutional and economic problems seem to paralyze Bosnia-Herzegovina on approaching the EU. While Sarajevo keeps pressing for the abolition of the Republika Srpska, Banja Luka threatens to possibly secede from Bosnia. The country which was only laboriously united by international efforts after the war (1992-1995) is far off its straight way into Europe.
All countries of the western Balkan consider joining the EU their strategic and most important goal. It is this outlook which stimulates reforms in the various countries – and this drive threatens to stall if Europe’s interest in the Balkan does not revive.
more